samedi 17 août 2013

The future of BlackBerry? Five possible scenarios

Long uncontested leader of smartphones for business, and well also in the sector of the smartphone for consumers, BlackBerry has since experienced a slump: in the five biggest European markets (Great Britain, France, Spain, Italy and Germany), BlackBerry is now 2.2% market share.

Corporate manufacturer has been undermined by the growth of culture BYOD ("bring your own material") - hence an influx iPhones and devices Android - while attempting to emerge on the market of the shelves with the PlayBook has hardly had any success.

BlackBerry announced yesterday that its Board of Directors has formed a Committee "to explore strategic alternatives", which "may include, among other things, the possible ventures, strategic partnerships or alliances, a sale of the company or other possible transactions". Declaring that he is not sure "that this exploratory process lead to any transaction whatsoever".

So what are the possible futures for BlackBerry now?

The company placed emphasis in its press release yesterday on his desire to accelerate the deployment of its mobile operating system BlackBerry 10, and for this she could dismiss him to other phones manufacturers, in order to regain a critical mass. After all, despite the initial skepticism, BlackBerry 10 received largely positive feedback, and is generally considered to be well designed and secure.

However this route has hardly been successful in the past for the company. BlackBerry already envisaged a time to dismiss its proprietary OS without too showing: last year hired JP Morgan and RBC Capital Markets to assist in a strategic study of ways to deploy the platform BlackBerry via partnerships or opportunities of licence. And even if BlackBerry 10 is a solid OS, there are many alternatives known - Android in particular - available for device manufacturers, as well as the long teeth, like Windows Phone, Tizen and Ubuntu Touch.

If the company has touted its OS in the past without interest, it is unlikely that it collects now, while its market share is still lower.

Return to the private sector, in itself, will not solve the problems of BlackBerry, but this can give him oxygen she needs.

The attempt being Michael Dell removed Dell from the stock exchange suddenly handed to fashion the idea that high-tech companies return to the private sector. The advantage is that it allows owners to take decisions long term difficult but necessary to rehabilitate the company without having Wall Street window to comment on each movement.

BlackBerry has reserves of cash and is much smaller than Dell, so that the return to firm capital is a realistic option, if there is a firm's equity interested. But it leaves open the question of the strategic options that would adopt BlackBerry, even if it becomes a non-listed company. In this option, the investment fund that would buy the company – and the direction that he would choose for her - will determine if it can return to a healthier, or be sold for nothing.

BlackBerry has been in relation to number of potential buyers in recent years, Lenovo at Amazon through Samsung and Microsoft. Some might be still interested, but others might also be tempted: same Dell or HP for example.

No acquirer seems however obvious these days. Many hardware manufacturers withdrew from the mobile sector in recent times, and for those who want to come back or even go there for the first time, there are ways to cheaper and easier to do.

Another option may be to dismantle the company, selling its various components of value - thousands of BlackBerry patents in mobile could be extremely interesting for Google or Apple, for example. Could even split the hardware and software of the company branches, and the focus on the development of its activity of mobile terminals (MDM) and enterprise management software - a field which will always be the future, its flow or flavourful.

There are however at least an analyst who believes in little. Maynard Um, of Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in a note to study: "by considering the sale of assets, we believe that BBRY would have the greatest value in whole although there may be of relevance for the different parts of the company - the OS for the automotive or smartphones market, infrastructure for security, intellectual property, the base of subscribers of the company"", and others."

As says the release of yesterday, "it is not certain"that this exploratory process lead to any transaction whatsoever".

It is possible that after having considered all options, BlackBerry decided to continue his only way. She always has a strong brand, a reasonable base of client companies and some appealing technologies - a lightweight BlackBerry might find its place in the mobile ecosystem.

But as observed by our colleague Larry Dignan, it will be difficult for BlackBerry say that it conducts its business as usual throughout this process, and its customers as its teams will be worried and in limbo. Faster the uncertainty will be lifted - if it is thrown-, the better it will be.

Note: this article was originally published on ZDNet.com, where you can find it in the original version.


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